Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
